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> Global Birth Rate Collapse, As planned? Or a problem

 
post Oct 29 2023, 00:36
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EsotericSatire



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There was the natural decline in birth rates due to economics and improved health care but the majority of countries are now trending below replacement, 2 births per woman.

The majority of countries are now inverting to a reverse population pyramid with aging populations that are difficult to sustain.

Globally the birth rate is now between 2.1 and 2.3, with several notable countries being caught off guard. China is trending towards 1 birth per woman and India dropped substantially to be below 2 for the first time. Both countries had planned to have expanding populations in their economic model forecasts until 2040+.

The west has a major issue as the modern monetary policy fallacy assumes a growing population to have expanding production potential that allows you to run endless govt deficits. Even record setting mass migration isn't working as a band-aid solution. Skilled migration is very effective, but unrestricted unskilled migration is just driving up costs faster than increases in productivity. Government planners seem to be stuck on 'It worked during the industrial revolution where people could work in factories' but we outsourced all those jobs.

The only countries that have maintained fertility are the African nations that did not get the safe and effective jab, much to the regret of Bill Gates and the WHO. The research studies so far show a temporary drop in fertility that recovers but they haven't really addressed why, and also what happens if you keep boosting. They also claim its a feature not a glitch that the mrna spikes hit the baby if you a preggo as well.

The birth rate is also lower than during the GFC.

Govts are going to have to start cutting back on spending sooner rather than later at this rate, unless AI massively boosts productivity and magically creates jobs.
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post Oct 29 2023, 08:30
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If it involves this species ending I'm cool with it.
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post Oct 30 2023, 23:54
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EsotericSatire



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QUOTE(Mags_ @ Oct 28 2023, 20:30) *

If it involves this species ending I'm cool with it.



Most likely it will mean quality of life going backwards for decades, when that begins nobody is sure. Humanity could end if supply chains collapse and more wars break out.


Though when they had a 60% decline in population in Europe after the black death it did cause wages to go up. Similarly after the great wars the decline in population lead to an increase in wages.
The problem we have was that the average population was then in their 20-30s, and now we are lop sided towards the older baby boomer generation.

Median age:

Australia 38
US 38
China 39
UK 45
Germany 48


If you have a median age around 25-30 and your country has its act together you can have an economic boom based on demographics. Seems getting both is quite difficult.
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post Nov 1 2023, 14:53
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QUOTE(EsotericSatire @ Oct 30 2023, 21:54) *
Median age:

Australia 38
US 38
China 39
UK 45
Germany 48
And also because people tend to live longer than before. Maybe even too long perhaps.
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post Nov 2 2023, 02:30
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EsotericSatire



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QUOTE(Agoraphobia @ Nov 1 2023, 02:53) *

And also because people tend to live longer than before. Maybe even too long perhaps.


The problem in my country is rather than have a model of social security that is sustainable, like they were aiming for in the 90s, now they keep adding more and more spending. To cover the obligations they have added the past 10ish years, we will need to raise taxes 10-15%. Either double the GST or raise income tax, and/or increase corporate tax. the models are leaning towards a 20% GST but nobody wants to lose the election to do it.


Our first lefty contingency plan of selling half the continent to China also won't work because they are also running out of money. Also everyone voted against it, if that makes any difference.

The second contingency plan was to flood in millions of immigrants but that is causing inflation, mass housing shortages, and also straining social security.

The third contingency of raiding everyone's private retirement savings is unpopular and only works once or twice as people will stop saving and then the social security spending spikes in the future.


That leaves three options?
-Raise taxes
-Rationalize social security spending
-Hope the next covid brings the average age down

This post has been edited by EsotericSatire: Nov 2 2023, 02:37
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post Nov 9 2023, 02:27
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QUOTE(EsotericSatire @ Oct 28 2023, 14:36) *

Govts are going to have to start cutting back on spending sooner rather than later at this rate

Indeed. And raise the retirement age.
Reducing human population is a very good thing. We are horribly overpopulated. Having more than 2 kids these days is shitty. Once global population drops by half, then it might be ok to start having enough kids to keep the population at that level.

Mass migration from a country with population growth to one with stable pop shouldn't be allowed.

Thinking that people could go extinct is absurdly stupid.
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post Nov 9 2023, 02:41
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QUOTE(Agoraphobia @ Nov 1 2023, 23:53) *

And also because people tend to live longer than before.

I won't be.

Been working on that since I was a teenager.
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post Nov 13 2023, 06:23
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Do not be too wicked, and do not be a fool; why should you die before your time?
Ecclesiastes 7:17
New Revised Standard Version Catholic Edition
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post Nov 13 2023, 07:24
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QUOTE(Closed Account @ Nov 13 2023, 15:23) *

why should you die before your time?

Because I choose to.
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post Nov 14 2023, 02:27
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QUOTE(EsotericSatire @ Oct 28 2023, 22:36) *
The majority of countries are now inverting to a reverse population pyramid with aging populations that are difficult to sustain.


I would say the solution is obviously to kill the elderly. However, as they are mostly right wing, racist bigots this would lead to more left wing governments and fucking stupid personal pronouns being enshrined in law.
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post Nov 15 2023, 05:44
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EsotericSatire



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QUOTE(ohmightycat @ Nov 13 2023, 14:27) *

I would say the solution is obviously to kill the elderly. However, as they are mostly right wing, racist bigots this would lead to more left wing governments and fucking stupid personal pronouns being enshrined in law.


I suppose the elderly are. Its kinda hard to make sense of racism these days, the left counts Chinese, Asians, some middle eastern and Indians as white people now, and that already included all Europeans, including Irish, Jews and Slavs.

Oh, parts of South America are also considered white too apparently. My bad.

Uruguay identifies as like 90% white that's more than England.
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post Nov 16 2023, 04:09
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QUOTE(Mags_ @ Nov 12 2023, 17:24) *
Because I choose to.

When Jesus saw the crowds, he went up the mountain; and after he sat down, his disciples came to him.
Then he began to speak, and taught them, saying:
“Blessed are the poor in spirit, for theirs is the kingdom of heaven."

Hm is yours a blessing in disguise? (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/ohmy.gif)

This post has been edited by Closed Account: Nov 16 2023, 04:12
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post Nov 16 2023, 08:21
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QUOTE(Closed Account @ Nov 16 2023, 13:09) *

Hm is yours a blessing in disguise? (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/ohmy.gif)

You are a coward.

You need some make believe authority figure who sells eternal life in exchange for conformity so you can make yourself feel ok about being in what equates to a perishable meat costume and the idea that you'll cease to exist when the costume does.

Instead of coming to terms with your own mortality, you cling to anything that will sate your egocentric need to exist in some form after your time in this world has passed.

I honestly preferred you when you were a dumbass with crap taste in anime.

At least you had an opinion that was your own.

Now you just quote scripture from arguably the worst work of fiction ever written, have the temerity to chide anyone who believes differently and then feel superior judging them because that's what a good Christian does.

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post Nov 18 2023, 23:25
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QUOTE(Mags_ @ Nov 16 2023, 01:21) *
I honestly preferred you when you were a dumbass with crap taste in anime.

At least you had an opinion that was your own.

Now you just quote scripture from arguably the worst work of fiction ever written, have the temerity to chide anyone who believes differently and then feel superior judging them because that's what a good Christian does.
Often, christians will just cherry-pick whatever selective passage(s) from that book they need to fit their own views, so that they can claim their views are ordained by god™.

You can find almost anything in there if you try hard enough, just from how fucking dense it is.

Personally I'm not surprised people are having fewer kids.
I personally have no desire in part because the world sucks and I wouldn't wish the weight of it on anyone.

This post has been edited by dragontamer8740: Nov 18 2023, 23:29
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post Nov 21 2023, 20:37
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QUOTE(Mags_ @ Nov 15 2023, 18:21) *
coward.

Thanks for the engagement!!! This was helpful... (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/cry.gif)

"Your Religion Is Gay & Fake!" and other things prob. Ok.

My position is as mild as they come and sure my jabba could have been pretentious, but you don't get to know that. You don't know my persona so, you are just throwing dirt in. I am a horrible person. 1000%. Yet.. Not that, relevant?

Cowardice exists, and I am Egocentric, and thus any God that intervenes does not exist, or cannot possibly exist?
Am I understanding correctly? What logic is that?
I might be truly Egocentric or Cowardly = God can't possibly exist?
Is Mark Whalberg egocentric and or Cristiano Ronaldo? Who knows. And countless others. This is IRRELEVANT.

Cynicysm is a worldly view given by this world, which is harmful. Why? Leads to see BADLY and always, certainly.
My friend, you don't get to project anything awful, onto everything. The world is damned and bad though. No coincidence here? (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/cry.gif)

Never said anything about Fear but I did mention Faith. Religion and stuff might make you suspect something sure but do these things matter? No. God is plausible still FOR YOU.
And VERY REAL so far as I am concerned! (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/laugh.gif)

It may very well be necessary to take a Christian message with a grain of salt, sure. We must differentiate Truth from falsehood. Incredibly important. We must examine extraordinary claims. Therefore, It makes perfect sense for you to doubt the Christian message. Fair enough. Perfectly fine for anyone to doubt this. And hold on believing. "HE may be God or Not. Maybe. Perhaps." No awareness of the soul or spirituality? Alright.

On the other hand, YOU ARE OUT PLAIN DENYING JESUS and not giving him ANY chances.
Again and again. Sounds like something convenient for you. Than straight rationality.
Sounds like No Humility at all, and no reason or thought was put into this, actually.

Is God meant to be in the freaking skies? Telling you not to be depressive? Isn't this "I demand God to babysit humanity 24/7, otherwise; I consider myself and everyone's just microbes. I wannaparty!"?

You gotta use your mind's eye to 'see' some stuff. Some ideas are hard. Senses or Emotion don't tell much about 'em.
Yet they 100% exist in that realm. Which we can call the realm of, what is ESSENTIALLY PLAUSIBLE and we can IMAGINE AND POSTULATE in terms of REASONABLE POSSIBILITY..
A demon, the spirit, a soul, Satan, God; etc exists there. As other things did not long ago.

They exist in terms of a Possibility. Things perfectly reasonable and plausible FOR YOU.
An actual concept which we can visualize, through a mind's. And after seeing 'em, perhaps that means, your mind and heart might have, opened..? Perhaps..
I mean.. What can I say? The Soul exists. Got it? You don't even believe in the Soul and you see yourself as?

Might be impossible to repent from evil in da afterlife, you know.
Having God, right there. There's no point with everything at sight and in the open. What's having your choice freed anymore? What's having 'free will' then? Realize God cannot be in the open.. ? The world would make little to no sense. That would make some fairy tale. In terms of choice: What merit? With a God in the skies looking at people inside 24/7?

◄ 1 Corinthians 15:33
“Let us eat and drink,

for tomorrow we die.”

Do not be misled: “Bad company corrupts good character.” Come back to your senses as you ought, and stop sinning; for there are some who are ignorant of God—I say this to your shame.
New International Version
QUOTE(dragontamer8740 @ Nov 18 2023, 09:25) *
I'm not surprised people are having fewer kids.
I personally have no desire in part because the world sucks and I wouldn't wish the weight of it on anyone.

Is the Torah where this 'almost anything!' gets very loud and clear?
Can't find humor in there. No foul language, progressiveness, liberalism, cooking recipes, germ-theory, cats and or what have you. No porn. FsZ's list of subjects.
Gotta count as 90% of it. Right? Jokes aside "says almost anything" yet you can't find where it says "it's your life, bud. Trust your heart. Go get em' champ."? I can't.

I don't remember Communists and Nazis getting a kick of it nor was any group prior to 16th century's schism? Quite some historical contradiction?

I don't think God is babbling there Tamer. More like "People can make use of anything and for anything". About the rest, I agree. But God, Jesus, Mr. Holy Spirit, Mother Mary, Guardian Angels, and everyone, makes everything VERY COOL and very HAAAPPY!!!! (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/ohmy.gif)

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post Nov 23 2023, 12:48
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EsotericSatire



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Covid24 drops kids, so the discussion might be moot anyways.

Kinda weird that alarm bells go off right after Xi visited Biden, and just in time for the next election.
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post Dec 10 2023, 11:04
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It is about hope.
When there is hope for the future, people are more likely to brith a baby.
But if they think the future is doomed, then everyone is for themselves. No babies.
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post Dec 15 2023, 10:30
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QUOTE(Closed Account @ Nov 21 2023, 13:37) *
Is the Torah where this 'almost anything!' gets very loud and clear?
Can't find humor in there. No... germ-theory.
Literally Leviticus 13, talking about infectious skin diseases and 'uncleanness.' Goes on for several more sections. There's also stuff about mildew, but I wouldn't necessarily call that a disease, even if it grows and spreads.
See how I said that without quoting a huge portion of it?
QUOTE(susancat @ Dec 10 2023, 04:04) *
It is about hope.
When there is hope for the future, people are more likely to brith a baby.
But if they think the future is doomed, then everyone is for themselves. No babies.
I see my choice as a compassionate thing, because I don't wish a hopeless world on someone else.
I agree it is largely about hope.

[postimg.cc] (IMG:[i.postimg.cc] https://i.postimg.cc/prrQn9p6/01-095-Cold-War-sm.png)

This post has been edited by dragontamer8740: Dec 15 2023, 11:07
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post Dec 15 2023, 21:54
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QUOTE(dragontamer8740 @ Dec 14 2023, 20:30) *
Literally Leviticus 13, talking(...)

I don't see any germ-theory there dragontamer; throughout the verses? I see regulations on how to handle disease affecting the skin?

Perhaps some effort on healthcare and cleanliness? :(

I do not see it..?

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post Dec 16 2023, 05:58
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The key word is "infectious."

It's about preventing skin diseases from spreading.
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